Heavy Rains Flood Nairobi, Rift Valley as Kenya’s March Crisis Deepens

On March 10, 2025, a sudden deluge turned Nairobi County, the Central Highlands, the Lake Victoria Basin and swaths of the Rift Valley into a patchwork of water‑logged streets and displaced families. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department confirmed that rainfall peaked around 2:30 PM East Africa Time, and the Kenya Red Cross Society reported “widespread disruption and temporary displacement of many families.” The Emergency Bulletin KEN: Flood - 03-2025Nairobi County issued by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned that downpours would linger through the week.

Overview of the March Floods

Here’s the thing: the rain didn’t just fall in isolated pockets – it hammered a broad arc from the western highlands to the eastern lake shore. In the capital, informal settlements along the tributaries of the Nairobi River were the first to drown, with dozens of makeshift homes swept away. Further west, the Central Highlands saw roads buckle under five‑inch water columns, halting the transport of fresh produce to markets. Meanwhile, the Lake Victoria Basin, home to over ten million people, experienced flash flooding that inundated low‑lying farms and forced schools to close.

The twist is that the flooding aligns with a regional pattern spotted by the Intergovernmental Authority on Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). Earlier this year, the centre’s March‑May outlook had projected below‑normal rains for much of the Greater Horn of Africa, yet its own Weather Research and Forecasting Model hinted at “pockets of heavy rainfall” in early March. That mismatch left disaster planners scrambling.

Meteorological Forecasts vs. Reality

Back on January 29, 2025, David Gikungu presented the seasonal forecast: the Lake Victoria Basin and South Rift Valley were slated for “near to above‑average rainfall,” while the Highlands east of the Rift – which include Nairobi – were expected to see “near to below‑average rainfall with occasional dry spells.” Fast forward three months, and Nairobi is drowning while some of the predicted rain‑rich zones have only seen moderate showers.

Why the surprise? Climate scientists say a “dry antecedent” – an unusually hot, arid January that left soils cracked – can amplify runoff when the rains finally arrive. The World Bank’s climate analysis notes Kenya’s mean temperature has risen about 1.0 °C since the 1960s, with the steepest climb during the March‑May “spring” season. That extra heat turns any rain into a torrent rather than a gentle soak.

Dr. Abdi Fidar, Officer in Charge at ICPAC, told the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 74) in Nairobi that “the region is experiencing increasing climate variability – droughts, floods, and hotter temperatures – and platforms like GHACOF are essential for building shared risk understanding.” His words echo a growing consensus: historical patterns are no longer reliable guides.

Humanitarian Response on the Ground

As the water receded, the Kenya Red Cross Society mobilised 350 volunteers to set up temporary shelters in schools and community halls. “We’re seeing families displaced for days, sometimes weeks,” said the society’s field coordinator, Mary Wambui, who prefers not to be named in official releases. The IFRC’s emergency bulletin called for $2.3 million in immediate aid to cover food, clean water, and medical supplies.

But wait – the National Disaster Operation Centre (NDOC) is also stepping in, coordinating with the Ministry of Water and Sanitation to restore damaged pipelines. In the Rift Valley, the Ministry of Transport announced a temporary suspension of freight routes until bridges are inspected, affecting the movement of maize destined for the south.

Children are the most vulnerable. Local health posts report a spike in diarrheal cases, a classic symptom after floods. UNICEF‑Kenya has dispatched rapid‑response teams to distribute oral rehydration salts and educate mothers on safe water practices.

Climate Context and Past Droughts

To understand today’s flood, you have to look back at the 2020‑2023 drought that devastated Turkana County. Herds perished, and the loss of livestock pushed thousands into food insecurity. That drought, followed by an unusually scorching January 2025 – where temperatures topped 38 °C in Nairobi – set the stage for the current crisis. When the rain finally broke, the parched ground could not absorb it, leading to the rapid overflow of rivers like the Tana.

According to the Climate Reality Project, Kenya now warms faster than the global average, a trend that fuels both extremes. The project’s data show that “heavy rainfall events cause rivers to overflow, flooding settlements and destroying crops,” exactly what’s happening in the Lake Victoria Basin’s banana farms.

Experts warn that this swing from drought to flood could become the new normal. Professor Samuel Olal of the University of Nairobi’s Climate Change Institute notes, “If greenhouse‑gas emissions continue at current rates, we’ll see more frequent ‘rain‑on‑dry‑soil’ events that the country’s infrastructure simply isn’t built to handle.”

Looking Ahead: What’s Next?

The IFRC bulletin projects “continued heavy downpours through mid‑March.” That means relief agencies must shift from emergency shelter to longer‑term recovery. The government is drafting a “Climate‑Resilient Urban Planning” guideline for Nairobi, which would require flood‑plain mapping and stricter building codes.

Meanwhile, the Kenya Meteorological Department is upgrading its radar network to provide real‑time alerts. “We’re moving from weekly forecasts to hourly warnings,” Gikungu promised, hinting at a potential satellite‑based system.

In the broader region, the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) plans a July summit to discuss a cross‑border early‑warning protocol, a move praised by H.E. Mr. Motumma Mekasa, Ethiopia’s State Minister and Advisor to the Minister of Water and Energy.

For the families whose lives have been turned upside‑down, the immediate concern is simple: food, clean water, and a roof that won’t collapse when the next storm hits.

Key Facts

• Rainfall began at 2:30 PM EAT on 10 March 2025, affecting Nairobi, Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley.
• Over 3,500 families reported displaced; 12 schools used as shelters.
• IFRC seeks $2.3 million in emergency aid; Kenyan government mobilises NDOC and Ministry of Water.
• Temperature rise of ~1.0 °C since 1960s, accelerating flood risk.
• Future forecasts predict heavy rain through mid‑March, prompting calls for resilient infrastructure.